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The 21st Century is widely referred to as the Asian century. There are many reasons for this. One reason is simple historic progression.
- The European Century (19th Century) colonial expansion, centre of trade and commerce, military dominance, consolidation of new forms of business and political organisation e.g. limited liability companies and the nation state
- The American Century (20th century): Most prosperous economy, end of cold war and the ‘end of history’ (Fukyama). Spread of American values: liberal democracy and open markets, and the big Mac.
Another is anticipated future economic and political trends.
- Asia: predominant and still growing population
- Emergence of major centres of economic growth and consumption, China, India and perhaps Indonesia
- Locus of anticipated increase in labour population, compared to declining populations in Western countries
- Politically relatively stable--- to become even more politically stable and rule driven with the advent of democracy. Better able to manage diversity. Less danger of succession wars and breakdowns.
BASED ON SUCH PROJECTIONS, THE ASIAN CENTURY IS OFTEN TAKEN AS SOMETHING INEVITABLE AND UNSTOPPABLE.
- Echoes of historical determinism e.g. Marxian reasoning; much reliance on economic variables e.g. trade, investment and labour flows
- Partly also the disappointing record of economic development in other parts of the globe: Latin America, Africa and the acute dependence of the Middle East on oil.
The notion of the 21st Century as the Asian century reinforced by two other broad factors:
- Asian region success story in economic development compared to others
- Absorption of other regions in particular economic spheres , e.g. Latin America with North America; Eastern Europe with the EU
More broadly, the overwhelmingly large and growing populations in much of Asia, relative social cohesion, a historical legacy of scientific achievements on the one hand, compared to aging populations, economic maturity and apathetic politics give the impression that the future belongs to Asia.
For a while, this optimism was countered by the onset of the Asian economic crisis but recovery seems to have been fast. In any case the emergence of India and China as dynamos of economic growth has dampened the negative psychological impact of the financial crisis.
The pre-financial crisis optimism about Asia is summarised by ADB in its Emerging Asia report as follows:
“Much about Asia’s future can be gleaned from its recent past. The underpinnings of economic success are identifiable and are potentially durable and replicable. The combinations of open economies and effective institutions will provide much of the momentum for catch up growth in South Asia, as they have already been done in East and South East Asia. The dynamics of economic growth will be similar. The rising share of working age population has the potential to lead to further economic growth in South East Asia in the near future and more so in South Asia but somewhat later. Even for the successful East Asian economies, the path to greater prosperity remains the same, although much of the boost resulting from demographic change has already occurred. Open markets, effective institutions and continued emphasis on education and skill upgrading are the best ways to ensure Asia’s future” (ibid, p. 54)
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